Last night of SF Tech Week. Closing party at the Ferry Building. 500+ founders, investors, engineers.
The vibe: San Francisco is BACK, baby!
The reality: It’s complicated.
The “SF is Back” Evidence
SF Tech Week itself:
- 1,000+ events across the city (Oct 6-12)
- Presented by a16z (vote of confidence from top VC)
- Decentralized format (Hayes Valley, SOMA, Mission, Financial District)
- Energy reminiscent of 2019 (pre-pandemic peak)
Walking around this week, I saw:
Packed coffee shops (Blue Bottle lines out the door)
Office buildings with lights on (not empty towers)
Networking events every night (sometimes 3-4 simultaneously)
Construction cranes (new housing, office space)
Tech workers in branded hoodies everywhere
The narrative: “We tried remote. It didn’t work. SF is back.”
The “SF is Over” Counter-Evidence
But then I talked to people at the party:
Founder from Austin: “I’m here for the week. My whole team is remote. Why would I pay SF rent?”
Engineer from NYC: “Great to network in person. But I’m flying home Sunday. Remote work is permanent for me.”
CTO from Miami: “We hire globally. SF talent is overpriced. I can get same quality for 60% of the cost.”
The reality: SF Tech Week doesn’t prove SF is back. It proves SF is a great place to VISIT, not necessarily LIVE.
The Data I Collected (Informal Survey)
At the closing party, I asked 50 people: “Where do you live and where does your team work?”
Results:
Location of attendees:
- 24 live in SF Bay Area (48%)
- 12 visiting from other US cities (24%)
- 8 visiting from international (16%)
- 6 living in Bay Area but not SF proper (12%)
Work arrangement:
- 15 fully in-office (30%)
- 28 hybrid (some days office, some remote) (56%)
- 7 fully remote (14%)
Interpretation:
SF is a hub for networking and events
Most teams are NOT fully in-office
Hybrid is the dominant model (56%)
The Great Debate: Remote vs. In-Person
Two camps at the party:
Camp 1: “Remote Killed Innovation”
Arguments:
- “We tried remote in 2020-2023. It was terrible.”
- “Junior engineers don’t learn without in-person mentorship.”
- “Serendipitous hallway conversations drive innovation.”
- “Remote teams have lower productivity and engagement.”
- “You can’t build culture on Zoom.”
Who believes this:
- Founders of in-person startups
- Investors (especially a16z types)
- Senior engineers who prefer office
- Companies with SF headquarters
Camp 2: “Remote is the Future”
Arguments:
- “We’re global from day 1. Best talent is distributed.”
- “Office rent in SF is $80-120/sq ft. Waste of money.”
- “Remote work enables work-life balance and diversity.”
- “Async communication is better for deep work.”
- “In-person bias favors extroverts and people who live near HQ.”
Who believes this:
- Remote-first startups (GitLab, Zapier model)
- Engineers with families (don’t want SF cost of living)
- Companies outside SF/NYC
- Indie hackers and bootstrappers
The Hybrid Compromise (And Its Problems)
Most companies (56% in my sample) landed on hybrid:
- “Team is required in office 2-3 days/week”
- “Core collaboration hours, rest is flexible”
- “Headquarters in SF, satellite offices in Austin/NYC/Miami”
Sounds reasonable. But problems emerge:
Problem 1: “Hybrid privilege”
- People who live near office get face time with leadership
- Remote workers miss impromptu decisions
- Creates two-tier culture (office vs. remote)
Problem 2: Coordination overhead
- “Let’s meet Tuesday when everyone’s in office”
- Schedules 4 people across 3 time zones
- Takes 2 weeks to find time
- Slower than full remote (async) OR full in-person (daily standups)
Problem 3: Office underutilization
- Company pays for 200-person office
- Tuesday/Wednesday: 120 people show up
- Monday/Friday: 40 people show up
- Expensive real estate sitting empty 60% of the time
One founder: “Hybrid is the worst of both worlds. Commit to one or the other.”
The SF Rent Reality Check
Why people are leaving SF (or not moving back):
SF median 1-bedroom rent: $3,400/month
For comparison:
- Austin: $1,600/month (53% cheaper)
- Miami: $2,400/month (29% cheaper)
- NYC: $4,200/month (24% MORE expensive!)
- Remote (anywhere): $800-1,500/month
For a tech worker making $150K/year:
Living in SF:
- Rent: $3,400/month = $40,800/year
- After-tax income: ~$100K
- Rent as % of after-tax: 41%
Living remote (low cost of living):
- Rent: $1,200/month = $14,400/year
- After-tax income: ~$100K (same salary, remote company)
- Rent as % of after-tax: 14%
- Extra savings: $26,400/year
Over 5 years: $132,000 extra savings from living remote.
That’s a down payment on a house.
The Talent Competition: SF vs. Everywhere Else
SF’s advantages:
Density of talent (network effects)
Proximity to investors (easier fundraising)
Ecosystem (events, meetups, collaboration)
Brand value (“I work at a SF startup” = credibility)
Competitors’ advantages (Austin, Miami, NYC, remote):
Lower cost of living (retain more of salary)
Better quality of life (space, weather, family-friendly)
Talent pools growing (SF people relocated, not coming back)
Remote-first culture (global talent, no geographic limits)
The question: Can SF maintain talent advantage when competition is this fierce?
What Companies Are Doing
From conversations at SF Tech Week:
Strategy 1: All-in on SF (30%)
- “Remote failed for us. Everyone back in office.”
- Offering relocation packages to bring people back
- Investing in office culture (free meals, events, perks)
- Risk: Limited talent pool (only people willing to live in SF)
Strategy 2: Remote-first (20%)
- “We hire globally. No headquarters.”
- Save on office costs, invest in remote tooling
- Async culture, documentation-heavy
- Risk: Harder to build culture, onboarding challenges
Strategy 3: Hybrid with SF hub (50%)
- “SF headquarters, but remote-friendly”
- Required office days (2-3/week) for people near SF
- Fully remote for people far from SF
- Risk: Two-tier culture, coordination overhead
My Prediction: Bifurcation
SF will thrive for:
AI companies (need to be where investors are)
Early-stage startups (pre-Series A)
Deep tech (hardware, biotech, need labs/facilities)
Companies where in-person culture is competitive advantage
Remote/distributed will win for:
Mature companies (post-Series B)
Developer tools (engineers prefer remote)
Global products (need distributed teams)
Companies optimizing for profitability (not growth-at-all-costs)
SF won’t die. But it won’t return to 2019 dominance either.
The Question I’m Wrestling With
I’m in sales. I can work from anywhere (all customer calls are Zoom anyway).
Should I stay in SF or move remote?
Reasons to stay in SF:
Networking (SF Tech Week proved value of in-person)
Career opportunities (easier to switch jobs when everyone’s here)
Access to investors/partners (meet them at coffee shops)
“FOMO” (fear of missing out on next big thing)
Reasons to leave SF:
Cost of living (save $26K/year living elsewhere)
Quality of life (bigger apartment, backyard, family-friendly)
Remote is normalized (no longer career limiting)
SF problems (homelessness, crime, urban decay not fixed)
For now: Staying in SF. But reconsidering every quarter.
Questions for This Community
For people who moved FROM SF:
- Do you regret it?
- What do you miss about SF?
- Did your career suffer?
For people who moved TO SF:
- Was it worth it?
- Are you making connections you couldn’t remotely?
For people who stayed remote:
- How do you handle FOMO?
- How do you network and build relationships?
For hiring managers:
- Remote-first, office-first, or hybrid?
- How do you compete for talent?
SF Tech Week was incredible. But I’m not convinced it proves “SF is back.”
Sources:
- SF Tech Week 2025 (1,000+ events, Oct 6-12)
- Closing party informal survey (50 attendees)
- a16z presenting SF Tech Week
- SF rent data (Zillow, Apartments.com)
- Conversations with founders, engineers, investors throughout the week