8 posts tagged with "psychology"

When faced with uncertainty, people often rely on heuristics to make judgments. Heuristics can be useful, but they can also lead to biases: for example, the judgment that not being able to see clearly = being far away is correct in most cases, but if you intentionally obscure something, people may mistakenly believe it is farther away.

When judging probabilities and valuations, people often use three heuristics: representativeness, availability, and adjustment and anchoring.

Representativeness Heuristic​

1. ==People often confuse representativeness with probability==. A neighbor describes Steve as shy, taciturn, helpful, but uninterested in people and the world. When asked to judge which profession is more likely for him: farmer, salesperson, pilot, librarian, or doctor, people will mistakenly believe Steve is a librarian because it fits their stereotype of that profession.
2. So what factors can help improve probability judgments?
   1. Prior probability, also known as ==base rates==. When considering representativeness, especially when presented with meaningless evidence, people tend to subconsciously ignore base rates and incorrectly use representativeness to make judgments. In the case of Steve, applying prior probability and Bayesian reasoning is necessary to arrive at the correct answer.
   2. Sample size. Sometimes, sample size can better explain issues than the patterns revealed by the sample.
   3. Correct understanding of odds. The gambler's fallacy, for instance, is the incorrect belief that probabilities will self-correct to the mean during a game of chance, while in reality, it is merely self-dilution; the probability of rolling ten "highs" in a row is the same as rolling a "high" and a "low" fifty-fifty.
   4. Predictability. The higher the predictability, the broader the range of estimated values. For example, a brief assessment of a teacher's teaching level should not be sufficient to judge that teacher's performance five years later.
   5. Caution against overconfidence leading to an illusion of validity in one's predictions, caused by confirmation bias, where people tend to seek evidence that supports their views, pay more attention to information that backs their opinions, or interpret information in ways that support their beliefs. Judgments based on several independent events tend to be more accurate than those based on redundant, correlated events.
   6. Regression to the mean. People often overlook this trend, and even when they are aware of it, they can easily misinterpret its causes. For example, in pilot training, instructors find that praising a pilot after a smooth landing leads to relatively worse performance next time; conversely, criticizing after a hard landing leads to relatively better performance next time. Instructors may mistakenly believe that praise and criticism caused the subsequent performance changes, while in reality, it is merely regression to the mean. Thus, people often overestimate the effects of criticism and underestimate the effects of praise.

• Why people bullshit?
  • Eric Ambler — "Never tell a lie when you can bullshit your way through it."
  • Harry Frankfurt - "One of the most salient features of our culture is that there is so much bullshit." Bullshit is everywhere.
• How to detect bullshit?
  • Using bullshit detector - a mental device that represents a person's ability to detect deception, dishonesty, corruption, fraud, insincerity, hypocrisy and falsity in others.
  • ==A key indicator of bullshit is the asymmetry of risks - when someone who does not have a skin in the game advocates something that benefits him if it succeeds but hurts only you if it fails, then he is bullshitting you.==

• Why do people bullshit you?
  • Because compared to deliberate deception, the cost of being exposed after bullshit is lower while hiding true intentions.
  • Harry Frankfurt said, "Bullshit is one of the most significant features of American culture." Bullshit is everywhere. Why do Americans especially like to bullshit?
    • Americans like to present things beautifully on the surface, carefully controlling their private emotions, rarely confronting others directly, but they value integrity and do not lie outright, so bullshit is the best option.
• How can you sense if someone is bullshitting you?
  • Use the ==bullshit detector==, which is a hypothetical psychological anti-deception mechanism.
  • ==The key to countering bullshit lies in recognizing the asymmetry of risk; if the other party has no stakes but advocates for something, they profit when successful, but only you suffer losses when it fails, then they are bullshitting you.==

Knowledge workers have limited cognitive power and willpower. They are lucky if in the zone; however, what if they are not? Therefore, I am introducing an energy-level playbook.

There are four levels of energy.

1. Zombie - could hardly do any work.
2. Robot - could do some cognitive job but cannot do any complicated task.
3. Human - could do relative complex work but cannot be in the zone all the time.
4. Rock Star - feeling like a god that can do anything.

What can we do in those states?

1. In the zombie state? Do not work or do little chore work.

   1. Take a rest.
      1. Being unfocused and get back to default mode network
         1. Take a walk/run outdoors.
         2. Return to nature.
         3. positive constructive daydreaming (PCD)
      2. Pretend to be someone else to encourage oneself.
      3. Chat with friends.
      4. Drink a cup of coffee and take a nap immediately for 25 mins.
   2. Alternatively, entertain oneself, if it is OK to waste the rest of the day. Entertainment will consume more cognitive power and make people feel more tired.
   3. in software development, do linting, writing predefined tests, introducing/writing automation tools, in which you do not have to use your brain.

2. In the robot state? Do preset work.

   1. check TODO lists and grab simple tasks
   2. implement a software design in an area that you are highly familiar with
   3. write documentation or clean up notes
   4. extensive reading

3. In the human state? Do exploratory work.

   1. create a new design
   2. communicate, persuade, or give a talk in public (Do not do these in a robot or a zombie state).
   3. implement a new and significant component of the system.
   4. planning
   5. intensive reading

4. In the rockstar state? Do creative work.

   1. hard tasks that require long-time focus and complex cognition
   2. synthesize: intensive researching by reading many materials and writing notes that are connecting the dots

Knowledge workers have limited energy, and their work state can vary from good to bad. What should you do when your state is not optimal? Today, we will discuss the Energy Level Playbook.

Energy states have levels, divided into four tiers.

1. Zombie - Essentially unable to do anything.
2. Robot - Can perform tasks that require cognitive ability but cannot handle complex tasks.
3. Mortal - Capable of handling relatively complex tasks but cannot maintain high concentration for long periods.
4. Transcendent - Feels capable of doing anything.

So, what can you do in these states?

1. In Zombie state? Don't work or do mindless tasks. (Menial work)

   1. Take a timely outdoor walk or run. Moving your body can increase blood flow to the brain while providing a suitable "distraction." Even standing up and walking a few steps every hour is a good break.
   2. Return to nature; being surrounded by flowers, trees, mountains, and rivers can be restorative. Even looking at pictures of nature can have a noticeable effect on the brain. Changing your desktop wallpaper to natural scenery can also help.
   3. Gather with friends, chat, and have a drink. It must be friends, for the sake of friendship, not for "networking."
   4. Start with a cup of coffee, aiming for a caffeine content of about 200 milligrams; set a timer on your phone for 25 minutes; begin to rest; and get up immediately when the 25 minutes are up.

2. In Robot state? Do preset tasks. (Basic work)

   1. Check your TODO list for some simple tasks.
   2. Implement existing or very familiar software designs.
   3. Write documentation or clean up notes.
   4. Skim read.

3. In Mortal state? Engage in exploratory work. (Exploratory work)

   1. Design new things.
   2. Communicate, persuade, and present (avoid these in the first two states).
   3. Plan.
   4. Read deeply.

4. In Transcendent state? Innovate. (High-level work)

   1. Tackle difficult tasks that require long periods of focus.
   2. Conduct comprehensive research.

Why taking breaks?​

• Growth = Pressure + Taking Rests If people take too much pressure but too less rests, then they will burn out. If people take too many rests but too little pressure, then they cannot grow. The high performer should properly assign pressure and rests, in order to achieve high-speed yet sustainable growth.

What does "truly restful" mean?​

The most treasurable resources of a knowledge worker are ==willpower and power of attention==. And truly restful breaks should recover these resources.

How to take truly restful breaks?​

To recover willpower and power of attention, guiding principles are

1. Fully switch off. Stay away from the Internet or anything that consumes willpower and attention.
2. Take short breaks early and often.
3. Get out of the office. Staff who did any work-related activities at lunch were rated as more fatigued by their colleagues at the end of the day.

Restful breaks vs Unrestful breaks​

1. Restful breaks: relaxation, take a nap, take a walk, social, etc.
2. Unrestful breaks: eat something, cognition (read the news, check emails, play video games, watch videos, etc.)

Systematic solution​

• Short-term

  1. Being unfocused and get back to default mode network
     1. Take a walk/run outdoor.
     2. Return to nature.
     3. positive constructive daydreaming (PCD)
  2. Pretend to be someone else to encourage myself.
  3. Chat with friends.
  4. Drink a cup of coffee and take a nap immediately for 25 mins.

• Mid-term

  1. Taking a few days off to recharge and no work at all.

• Long-term

  1. meditation.
  2. sleep well. Good sleep makes skills and knowledge "grow" in the brain.

Why Rest?​

• Growth = Stress + Rest. Too much stress and too little rest can overwhelm a person; too little stress and too much rest can lead to complacency and stagnation. Experts allocate stress and rest wisely to grow efficiently and sustainably.
• Engage in targeted, high-intensity training, then rest and recover. Repeat this process while slightly increasing intensity to effectively enhance physical capabilities.

What Can Rest Restore?​

• The two resources that knowledge workers expend the most and need to recover from rest are willpower and attention, so:
  1. To rest, first disconnect from the internet.
  2. Short and frequent breaks are better than long periods of work followed by long breaks.
  3. It’s best to leave the office during breaks.

What Is Rest and What Is Not?​

• Useful rest: Relaxation, socializing (casual chatting, WeChat).
• Useless rest: Eating, cognitive activities (reading news, checking emails).

How to Rest?​

• Short-term

  1. Take timely outdoor walks. Moving your body increases blood flow to the brain and provides a pleasant “distraction.” Even standing up and walking a few steps every hour is a good rest.
  2. Return to nature; being surrounded by flowers, trees, mountains, and rivers can be restful. Even looking at pictures of nature can have a noticeable effect on the brain. Changing your computer desktop to a natural landscape can also help.
  3. Gather with friends, chat, and have a drink. It must be friends for the sake of friendship, not for networking.
  4. Start with a cup of coffee containing about 200 milligrams of caffeine; set your phone timer for 25 minutes; begin to rest; get up immediately when the 25 minutes are up.

• Medium-term 5. A good vacation is like recharging; it can provide abundant energy for a long time afterward. During vacations, completely detach from work. Besides walking, returning to nature, and gathering with friends, you can listen to music or take a bath, but activities that consume attention, like gaming or scrolling through your phone at night, are not allowed.

• Long-term 6. Learn to meditate. Find a quiet place where you won't be disturbed; sit comfortably; take deep breaths and feel your belly rise and fall with each breath. Focus on your breathing, but don’t deliberately avoid thoughts that come to mind; acknowledge them and then let them go. Start with one minute each day and gradually increase the time. 7. Sleep is crucial; its role is not just to eliminate fatigue but also to allow the body and brain to “grow.” Sleep should be regular, ideally 7-9 hours each night, with the specific duration varying by person, aiming to wake up naturally without an alarm.

How to Not Concentrate?​

Attention is a limited resource. When you focus your attention, you are consuming the brain circuits related to attention. But how do you rest your mind? We are constantly thinking, and it’s hard to stop; so what does “not concentrating” mean? This introduces an important concept called the “Default Mode Network.”

1. “Positive Constructive Daydreaming (PCD).”
2. Take a short nap.
3. Pretend to be someone else, viewing stress as a challenge rather than a threat, and encourage yourself.