The Eval-Rig Latency Lie: Why Your p95 Doubles in Production
The eval team puts a number on the deck: "p95 latency is 1.2s." The launch ships. A week later, oncall posts a graph: production p95 is 4.8s and climbing through the dinner-time peak. Engineers spend the next five days arguing about whether something regressed, instrumenting model versions, opening tickets with the provider — and eventually discover that nothing changed except where the number was measured. The eval rig was reporting the latency of a quiet machine running serial calls against a warm cache. Production is a different system. The p95 was never wrong; it was answering a different question.
This is the eval-rig latency lie. It is not about bad benchmarks — most teams use reasonable tools and report the numbers honestly. It is about the gap between "the latency of the model" and "the latency a user experiences," and the fact that the rig you build for development almost always measures the first while implying the second. Once you internalize this, latency SLOs derived from a benchmark stop looking like product commitments and start looking like claims about a private testing environment that nobody else can reproduce.
