Debate Diversity Collapse: When Three Agents Vote 3-0 Because They Read the Same Internet
The architecture diagram says "ensemble of three frontier models, debate-and-reconcile, majority vote." The trace says all three agents converged on the same answer in round one and spent two more rounds politely paraphrasing each other. The eval says +0.4 points over a single call. The bill says 4.2x. Somewhere in there, somebody decided the panel was working.
Multi-agent debate is sold as a way to get disagreement-driven reasoning: three minds arguing toward a better answer than any one of them would reach alone. It depends on the agents actually disagreeing. Frontier LLMs trained on overlapping web corpora, instruction-tuned against overlapping preference datasets, and aligned against overlapping safety taxonomies share priors more than the architecture diagrams admit. After a round of "let's reconcile," what you observe is not three perspectives converging on truth — it is three samples from one distribution converging on the mode they were never that far from.
The pattern has a name in the recent literature: when an ensemble's vote-disagreement rate trends to zero independent of question difficulty, you have debate diversity collapse. The panel is still voting. The vote no longer carries information.
