Skip to main content

22 posts tagged with "strategy"

View All Tags

Zeng Ming's Strategic Management Philosophy

· 29 min read

Chapter 1: Strategic Concepts and Decision-Making Contributions During Alibaba Period

From 2006 to 2017, Professor Zeng Ming served as Alibaba Group's Chief Strategy Officer ("Chief of Staff"), deeply involved in the formulation and execution of Alibaba's overall strategy. As Jack Ma's strategic advisor, he helped create and develop important business segments including Taobao, Alipay, Alibaba Cloud, and Cainiao Network. During his time at Alibaba, Zeng Ming promoted a series of forward-looking strategic concepts, the most prominent being the platform ecosystem strategy and decentralized organizational transformation.

1. Platform Ecosystem Strategy: Zeng Ming believed that Alibaba's core competitiveness was not in a single business, but in building future commercial infrastructure—various types of platforms or ecosystems. He pointed out that the traditional emphasis on "core capabilities" had become outdated, and future enterprises should develop organically like networks, becoming more biological rather than mechanical. Under his advocacy, Alibaba gradually expanded from an early e-commerce platform to a complex ecosystem encompassing e-commerce, payments, logistics, cloud computing, and more, positioning itself as a builder of social business ecosystems. The Alibaba Group underwent a major structural adjustment from late 2012 to 2013: breaking down the e-commerce business into 25 small business units (BUs), reorganizing financial businesses into multiple divisions, and Jack Ma stepping down as CEO. This transformation was based on Zeng Ming's judgment—"if Alibaba wants to promote the development of an ecosystem externally, the company must also achieve ecologicalization internally". Therefore, Alibaba internally broke the traditional bureaucracy, distributing power and business into smaller, more flexible units, forming an internal ecosystem to adapt to the needs of the platform ecosystem strategy.

2. Decentralized Organizational Transformation: Zeng Ming advocated for distributed collaboration and small team operations as an organizational model to adapt to the rapidly changing environment of the internet era. He participated in formulating Alibaba's "four transformations" policy: marketization, platformization, ecologicalization (species diversity), and data-driven approach. For example, on the Taobao platform, external merchants and service providers were introduced to jointly create diversified goods and services, enabling "small but beautiful" and category-diverse sellers to flourish, achieving more personalized matching between buyers and sellers. At the organizational level, Alibaba abandoned the traditional unified management center and encouraged internal innovation through frontline empowerment and horse-racing mechanisms. As Jack Ma said: "Traditional management is no longer suitable for Alibaba; we need to build an ecosystem that integrates internal and external resources." After the 2013 reorganization, each business unit had greater autonomy, forming a competitive and cooperative ecosystem among them. This decentralized organization laid the foundation for Alibaba to maintain agility in the rapidly changing internet competition. When summarizing Alibaba's experience, Zeng Ming stated that future organizations are more like networks, needing to break bureaucracy and move toward network-based organizational forms. Alibaba provided momentum for the continuous evolution of the platform ecosystem through internal entrepreneurship, partnership systems, and other methods that made the organization flatter and self-driven.

Chapter 2: Zeng Ming's Core Theoretical Concepts

Based on practical experience, Zeng Ming developed a series of strategic management theories, including "Momentum Theory," "C2B Strategy," "New Business Civilization," "De-KPI," "De-Management Center," "Self-Evolving Organization," and "Structural Empowerment." These concepts form the core of Zeng Ming's strategic thinking system. The background, core views, and application cases of each are explained below.

2.1 Momentum Theory

Background: The rise of the internet and mobile internet has created a business environment full of high uncertainty and disruptiveness. Facing these changes, entrepreneurs need to grasp the major trends of the times to succeed. Through long-term research and practical experience, Zeng Ming realized the importance of "momentum" in strategy.

Core Views: "Momentum Theory" emphasizes following and utilizing the momentum contained in era trends to formulate strategy. Zeng Ming advocates that entrepreneurs should have a "ten-year vision," maintaining keen insight into future trends while "working for one year" tactically to find breakthrough points. "The times make heroes," and respecting and grasping major trends is a prerequisite for success. He further points out that leaders should not only follow trends but also dare to create trends. Only by skillfully utilizing momentum (the energy accumulated by trends) can enterprises become leaders of their time. The first principle of strategy is to develop with major trends in a highly uncertain environment to gain momentum. In a word, "without utilizing momentum, it's impossible to become a leader of the era."

Application Cases: Apple, after Steve Jobs' return, captured the major trends of digital music and smartphones, redefining the industry landscape through iPod and iPhone, thus achieving a takeoff. In contrast, PC giant Dell failed to see the major trend of mobile internet, missed momentum, and declined. Alibaba's own development was a result of following the macro trends such as the rise of China's consumer internet and the popularization of mobile payments. Zeng Ming often cites these examples to remind entrepreneurs: during key transformation periods, it's essential to assess major trends with a long-term perspective, and going with the flow can achieve twice the result with half the effort.

2.2 C2B Strategy

Background: In the traditional industrial era, business was dominated by the B2C model (Business to Consumer, where enterprises mass-produce and then sell to consumers). However, with the development of internet and data technology, consumer roles have strengthened, and the market has begun to shift from "seller-driven" to "buyer-driven." In 2012, when discussing with Jack Ma, Zeng Ming proactively proposed the "C2B" strategic concept, believing it to be the most important business paradigm in the digital age.

Core Views: "C2B Strategy," or Customer to Business, emphasizes that consumer demand drives enterprise production and value chain operations, which is a disruption of the traditional B2C model. Zeng Ming points out that C2B means that enterprises must design business processes around customers' personalized needs, achieving customized services on a large scale. He calls C2B the "most basic model of the new business era," and only when C2B emerges on a large scale across industries can the entire business chain be completely restructured by the internet and data. The essence of C2B is a fundamental change in business logic: from the enterprise-led supply chain of the past to a network-collaborative demand response chain. In the traditional model, enterprises first mass-produce standardized products, then stimulate demand through advertising and distribute products through channels; while in the C2B model, enterprises first interact with consumers to explore potential demands through data, then quickly organize resources to meet these demands, achieving on-demand production and services.

Application Cases: The development of the Taobao platform embodies the C2B concept: a large number of sellers adjust their product supply based on consumer search, browsing, and other data, achieving consumer data-driven supply. The Taobao customization, Juhuasuan, and other businesses promoted by Alibaba around 2010 were all explorations of C2B. For example, in the clothing industry, some merchants obtain fashion trends and consumer preferences through Taobao and Tmall, then conduct small-batch flexible production, truly achieving "production based on sales." Zeng Ming predicted that 2018-2023 would be a key period for the breakthrough of the C2B model, with large-scale personalized customization appearing in more industries. He even further proposed derivative models such as "S2B," exploring innovative paths where platforms (Supply/Support) empower numerous small business merchants to better serve the customer end. In summary, the C2B strategy reflects Zeng Ming's judgment on future business models: customer-driven will replace manufacturer-driven, and data will link customized needs with social supply chains.

2.3 New Business Civilization

Background: "New Business Civilization" is a macro concept proposed by Zeng Ming for business transformation in the information age. As the internet deeply penetrates the economy and society, new technologies and values are reshaping business rules, which he calls the emerging "new business civilization." As early as 2009, Zeng Ming gave a speech titled "The Dawn of New Business Civilization," believing that the mass production line and standardization model of the industrial age would give way to new networked and intelligent models.

Core Views: Zeng Ming believes that the DNA of new business civilization consists of two double helices: network collaboration and data intelligence. These two organically integrate to give birth to entirely new business species in the digital era. Network collaboration refers to breaking down complex business activities and having them collaboratively completed by numerous participants through internet platforms, making the process more efficient. Data intelligence refers to the use of big data and AI to continuously iterate and optimize decisions, more accurately perceiving and meeting user needs. Under the new business civilization, business operations are more biological—enterprises coevolve with ecosystems, far more flexible than mechanical hierarchical organizations. He emphasizes that "precision" is the essential difference between new business and old business. The industrial age succeeded through scale, while the new business era pursues precise fulfillment of individual needs: first exploring potential needs through interaction, matching supply in real-time, and providing customized services based on scenarios. Zeng Ming calls this upgrade the transition of business from "extensive scale" to "refinement and accuracy."

Application Cases: Google's search advertising analyzes user intent to achieve precise ad delivery by scenario and real-time bidding fees, which is the embodiment of "refinement" in the new business civilization; Taobao's advertising system can track the entire chain from advertising investment to sales conversion, making every penny's effect transparent, which is the embodiment of "accuracy." Additionally, ride-sharing platforms like Uber use data intelligence to achieve real-time matching and dynamic pricing, but Zeng Ming analyzes that their dilemma lies in the lack of true network collaboration effects—scale effects alone are insufficient to form monopoly barriers. In contrast, Taobao, because it built payment, credit evaluation, and other network collaboration systems early on, although developing slowly, laid the foundation for ecosystem network effects, and once the network matured, it achieved explosive growth. These examples illustrate that the new business civilization places more emphasis on collaboration effects and data-driven competitiveness, rather than traditional resources and scale. Zeng Ming summarizes: "Network collaboration + Data intelligence = Intelligent business", a simple formula that encapsulates the secret to Alibaba's success and reveals all the keys to future business.

2.4 "De-KPI" Concept

Background: In traditional management, KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) are widely used for assessment and motivation. However, in rapidly changing and innovation-driven environments, overly rigid KPI assessments can lead to short-sighted organizational behavior and constrain innovation. While promoting empowerment-type organizations, Zeng Ming proposed the concept of "De-KPI" (breaking free from KPI constraints), believing this to be a hurdle that organizational transformation must overcome.

Core Views: "De-KPI" does not mean completely abandoning indicators, but rather breaking free from the inertial constraints of traditional KPI management and establishing a real-time, dynamic, multi-dimensional indicator system. Zeng Ming points out that if a company promotes empowerment and innovation while still using old-style KPIs to assess and reward employees, employees will ultimately be led by these short-term indicators, making it difficult for the organization to truly transform. Overly simple KPIs distort strategy: many enterprises simplify strategies into one or two numerical targets (such as annual revenue, profit) during execution, which cannot reflect the true requirements of the strategy and instead cause management to sacrifice long-term development to achieve indicators. He stated directly: "Breaking free from KPI inertia is a very difficult but necessary hurdle for organizational innovation." Therefore, new-type organizations need to shift from single KPI orientation to online dynamic indicator matrices. Through digital tools, managers can monitor business health and progress in real-time, evaluating team contributions with multi-dimensional indicators, rather than a few static numbers at the end of the year.

Application Cases: At Alibaba, in the early days to encourage Taobao's rapid market expansion, Jack Ma boldly set the "double million KPI" (enabling 100,000 sellers to achieve annual incomes over 10,000 yuan and bringing 100 million consumers to online shopping within a year), a visionary indicator that at once shifted the team's focus from just staring at GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume). But as business complexity increased, Alibaba gradually de-emphasized hard KPI indicators for various sub-businesses, instead adopting more horse-racing mechanisms, process indicators, and user feedback for evaluation. Zeng Ming also advocated using data dashboards to provide real-time feedback on business status, allowing teams to self-correct without superior orders. This change effectively avoided behavior just for the sake of KPIs, making the organization more focused on creating user value and long-term strategic goals.

2.5 "De-Management Center" and Self-Evolving Organization

Background: "De-Management Center" is an innovative idea proposed by Zeng Ming for organizational structure. Traditional enterprises rely on top-down hierarchical decision-making and centralized management, but in an era of high uncertainty, this model responds slowly and suppresses frontline creativity. To this end, Zeng Ming advocates weakening central control and shifting toward an empowering, self-evolving organizational model that allows the organization to evolve in a self-driven manner.

Core Views: "De-Management Center" requires reducing dependence on a single authority and allowing decisions and innovations to emerge from within the organization. Zeng Ming points out that many leading enterprises today are exploring "operation without CEO commands"—even without boss-level instructions, the organization can operate efficiently in coordination. To achieve this, enterprises need new mechanisms to answer three questions: Without central control, how does the organization ensure healthy operation? How does it maintain the right direction? How does everyone truly collaborate? His answer is: use culture and vision to build consensus, use data and platforms to provide transparent feedback, and use distributed power to stimulate initiative. The focus of management will shift from "control" to "motivation" and "empowerment." As he says, the core of the industrial age was bureaucratic management, while the network age must break bureaucracy and move toward network-type organizations. In such organizations, central managers no longer direct everything in detail, but rather enable frontline employees to make decisions and collaborate through mechanism design. This self-organization can continuously self-evolve, constantly producing high-quality strategic decisions and innovations. "Self-evolving organization" refers to such an organization that dynamically adjusts strategy and continuously emerges innovations under external environment feedback. Zeng Ming emphasizes that in the midst of dramatic changes, being right once is far from enough; organizations must cultivate the ability to innovate continuously—letting strategy and innovation grow "bottom-up" within the organization.

Application Cases: The co-creation mechanism widely implemented within Alibaba embodies the de-management center thinking. Core employees participate in strategic discussions together, dynamically adjusting direction according to market changes, making strategic decisions emerge collectively within the organization. For example, the strategy for the annual "Double 11" shopping festival is not decided by executives behind closed doors, but is optimized in real-time by various business teams under data guidance, eventually forming a global consensus. In terms of organizational culture, Alibaba's "horse-racing mechanism" allows multiple teams to explore similar projects in parallel, with the successful ones prevailing, which is actually a decentralized adaptive evolution. In the early days of Taobao, multiple teams simultaneously developed different versions of product features, "growing wildly" with survival of the fittest, ultimately leaving the solution that best matched users. Similarly, Huawei's "rotating CEO" system and Haier's self-operating entity model are also attempts to weaken the single center and stimulate organizational self-evolution. Zeng Ming's ideas provide a theoretical foundation for such practices: future excellent enterprises should be self-evolving organisms, not machines driven by upper-level centralization.

2.6 Structural Empowerment

Background: "Empowerment" has become a buzzword in management, but Zeng Ming places more emphasis on "structural empowerment", which means embedding empowerment into the organizational structure itself through institutional and tool-level design. This way, empowerment is no longer just a matter of leader attitude but becomes part of the enterprise's operating mechanism.

Core Views: Structural empowerment requires enterprises to build platform systems that enable employees and partners to access needed resources and capabilities at any time. Zeng Ming points out that the future is an era of creativity, where much traditional management knowledge will be replaced by AI, and the greatest value of humans lies in innovation. Therefore, organizations need to stimulate human creative potential through empowerment. Empowerment is not just a slogan but must be implemented at the tool level. He exemplifies that for complex organizations like Alibaba, empowerment must rely on technological tools, among which *"data middle platform"* is a very important empowerment tool. The data middle platform precipitates the data and technical capabilities of various company businesses into universal modules, ready for use by front-end teams, greatly improving the efficiency of innovation and trial-and-error. Zeng Ming explains that the core value of the middle platform lies in allowing front-end innovation to change rapidly, equivalent to providing strong support for innovation. This is a form of structural empowerment: through platformized infrastructure (data, technology, operational support, etc.), capabilities are tooled and distributed to teams, allowing small teams to do what big companies can do. Structural empowerment also includes mechanism-level empowerment, such as equity incentives and benefit-sharing mechanisms, giving employees a sense of ownership, transforming from "I have to do it" to "I want to do it." In Zeng Ming's view, organizational principles are evolving from the past incentive to empowerment and co-creation. Empowering organizations enable talents to create value in a self-driven manner by providing space, resources, and help, rather than relying on manager supervision.

Application Cases: Alibaba is particularly outstanding in empowering ecosystem partners. For example, basic services provided to merchants such as Alipay payment, Cainiao logistics, and Alibaba Cloud computing are a form of "structural empowerment," helping small merchants reduce technical and operational barriers to entrepreneurship on the platform. Another example is Alibaba Cloud's development of open SaaS interfaces, allowing numerous third-party software service providers to connect, which is equivalent to empowering the entire ecosystem to serve merchants together. Looking at the company internally, Alibaba's middle platform strategy precipitates the technical capabilities that were repeatedly built by various business lines, turning them into shared services empowering all business departments, greatly enhancing overall collaborative efficiency and stimulating product innovation in frontline teams. Zeng Ming emphasizes, whoever evolves into an empowering enterprise first is more likely to become a winner in the intelligent business era. This is because structural empowerment enables the creative power of the entire ecosystem to be exponentially amplified, forming a virtuous cycle. This concept is influencing more and more enterprises to think about how to build platforms to empower employees and customers, thereby achieving growth together.

Chapter 3: Key Ideas in Representative Speeches, Articles, and Works

Zeng Ming has systematically expounded the above strategic ideas in public speeches, published works, and articles. This chapter selects three representative works—"Smart Business," "The Dictator's Innovation," and "Fierce for Ten Thousand Years"—to extract his core concepts.

3.1 "Smart Business"

Work Background: "Smart Business: What Alibaba's Success Reveals About the Future of Strategy" is a book published by Zeng Ming in 2018, systematically summarizing his observations and practices during more than ten years at Alibaba. The English version of this book was published by Harvard Business School Press. The book combines numerous Alibaba cases and classic business cases, aiming to provide strategic guidance for the digital age to enterprises in all industries.

Key Ideas: "Smart Business" proposes a refined formula: "Network Collaboration + Data Intelligence = Smart Business". Zeng Ming emphasizes that this equation reveals the reason behind Alibaba's success and is also the essence of future business. The book explains in detail how network collaboration reorganizes business processes that were previously vertically integrated through internet platforms into dispersed, flexible, scalable, globally optimized processes; and how data intelligence records and iteratively optimizes all business data, more accurately mining user needs and providing personalized products and services. The smart business era is therefore defined as: solving problems through large-scale multi-role real-time interaction (collaboration) and continuously optimizing decisions through full-chain data feedback (intelligence). Zeng Ming believes this new strategy is applicable to enterprises in any industry, not just internet companies.

A famous case in the book is Alibaba's annual "Double 11" shopping festival. Zeng Ming calls it a perfect example of network collaboration: Taobao/Tmall itself does not produce a single product, but through the platform, it mobilizes tens of millions of sellers and millions of partners to work collaboratively, fulfilling massive orders throughout the day. Such complex trading activities could not be completed by traditional vertical enterprises, but in the platform ecosystem, various links collaborate to achieve results far exceeding the efficiency of a single enterprise. This proves the power of network collaboration. On the other hand, data intelligence also plays a key role in Double 11: real-time data analysis guides inventory allocation, logistics routing, and marketing strategies, forming global optimization. All these validate the new strategic framework advocated in "Smart Business."

Impact and Evaluation: "Smart Business" comprehensively organized Alibaba's commercial evolution process and strategic new blueprint for the first time. The strategic framework and organizational principles proposed in the book (such as the new positioning theory of point-line-plane-body, the organizational evolution from management to empowerment, etc.) provide thought guidance for numerous entrepreneurs. It can be said that the book integrates Zeng Ming's various concepts proposed over the years (C2B, new business civilization, collaborative effects, etc.) into a systematic whole. As stated in the book: "This is a strategic guide for the digital economy era." Many enterprise executives use this book as essential reading for learning internet thinking and intelligent strategy. Through this work, Zeng Ming established his influence in the field of strategic management academia and industry, being hailed as the authoritative summary of the "Alibaba experience" by "Jack Ma's military advisor."

3.2 "The Dictator's Innovation"

Work Background: "The Dictator's Innovation" is a thought-provoking proposition put forward by Zeng Ming in a certain speech or article. The title carries a hint of humor and contradiction: on one hand, "dictator" refers to centralized leadership with strong power, on the other hand, "innovation" requires diversity and vitality. Behind this phrase actually lies Zeng Ming's unique insights into the relationship between leadership and innovation.

Key Ideas: Zeng Ming points out that in the early stages of innovation and at critical decision-making moments, centralized leadership can often play a key role. He describes how some outstanding entrepreneurs exhibit firmness and decisiveness like "dictators" when driving innovation. This is not derogatory, but emphasizes the importance of clear vision and strong execution for innovation breakthroughs. For example, Zhang Xiaolong, the father of WeChat, adopted an almost decisive style when leading the WeChat product, insisting on a "one-man show" to maintain the purity of the product experience, which was one of the reasons for WeChat's rapid rise. Similarly, Steve Jobs was seen as a "innovation dictator" in Silicon Valley, and his personal pursuit of perfection and decisive decision-making created Apple's disruptive products. Through these cases, Zeng Ming points out: in rapidly changing innovation fields, a visionary leader needs to centralize decision-making power at critical moments, boldly try and error, and even break bureaucratic resistance with personal authority. This "dictatorial" leadership can escort innovation in its early stages.

However, he also emphasizes that "the dictator's innovation" does not mean one person accomplishes everything. On the contrary, successful "innovation dictatorship" is often built on stimulating team passion and keenly capturing user voices. Once the innovation direction is verified as effective, leaders should timely delegate power, allowing broader creativity to participate. Zeng Ming's view reflects a consideration of dynamic balance in leadership: innovation needs a relaxed and free atmosphere, but also needs strong leadership to anchor direction in the initial chaos. As he said, "the most important core ability of enterprises today is not whether a strategic decision is right or wrong, but whether there is a system that can continuously make strategic judgments and corrections." If the initial autocracy can evolve into later openness and co-creation, then the enterprise will have both explosive power and sustainability.

Application Examples: Many of Alibaba's early product innovations also embody this point: for example, when Taobao was first created, Jack Ma insisted against opposition on not charging commissions from sellers (free model), a decision with a strong personal style that created the miracle of Taobao rapidly accumulating popularity. Similarly, when Alipay was initially promoting guaranteed transactions, it faced questioning, and Jack Ma ordered "do it first, talk later," and this determination is also a manifestation of "dictatorial" innovation. It was later proven that these decisions opened new chapters for Alibaba. Through "The Dictator's Innovation," Zeng Ming reminds entrepreneurs: in an era when thousands of troops are exploring innovation, don't just pursue democratic consensus and fall into mediocrity; sometimes you need the courage to break through forbidden zones alone. Of course, he also calls for turning successful experiences into the collective wisdom of the organization after "dictatorship," using mechanisms to make innovations continuously emerge, rather than forever relying on individual heroes.

3.3 "Fierce for Ten Thousand Years"

Work Background: "Fierce for Ten Thousand Years" is a rather jianghu-flavored expression, originating from a themed speech or article title by Zeng Ming (the specific source is often entrepreneurial forums or Hupan University sharing). This phrase sounds exaggerated but reflects his unique interpretation of entrepreneurial spirit and has become a motto circulated among entrepreneurs.

Key Ideas: "Fierce" means strong, brave, not afraid of challenges. "Ten Thousand Years" symbolizes an extremely long time span. Connecting the two, Zeng Ming uses this humorous phrase to emphasize that entrepreneurs must have lasting determination and fearless spirit. The core ideas include: courage and tenacity. First, the entrepreneurial journey is full of unknowns and difficulties, and only a "fierce" mindset can break through barriers—this means daring to break conventions, boldly trying and erring, not fearing failure or mockery. Second, "ten thousand years" implies long-termism. Zeng Ming repeatedly advises entrepreneurs that great undertakings cannot be accomplished overnight, and they must be prepared psychologically to persist day after day for ten years. Just as Alibaba proposed to be a "102-year company," this is a symbol reminding enterprises to take a long-term perspective and continue to strive for the future. Therefore, "Fierce for Ten Thousand Years" can be understood as: persisting to the end with aggressiveness and perseverance. No matter how external circumstances change, truly excellent entrepreneurs must have both the vigor of newborn calves not fearing tigers and the persistence of water dripping through stone.

Application Examples: Jack Ma and Alibaba's growth process is exactly a portrayal of "Fierce for Ten Thousand Years": from the 18 founders starting the business in 1999, to adhering to beliefs when the internet bubble burst, to later e-commerce wars and financial storms, in the face of every severe challenge, the Alibaba team displayed extraordinary resilience and courage, ultimately surviving harsh winters and winning victories. This spirit has also influenced the students of Hupan University. Zeng Ming shares many failure cases in Hupan classrooms, aiming to prepare entrepreneurs psychologically for "nine deaths and one life," facing the winding road of entrepreneurship with strong will. He says: "The greatest enemy of excellence is being content with goodness," and only by maintaining a fierce upward momentum can one continuously climb to new heights. Therefore, this phrase is both an encouragement to entrepreneurs and an extension of Zeng Ming's strategic thinking at the human level: strategy is not only analysis and planning but also needs the support of spiritual strength. It is this style of both rational insight and passion that makes Zeng Ming's speeches widely welcomed by audiences and also injects confidence and fighting spirit into countless entrepreneurs.

Chapter 4: Systematic Summary and Outlook of Enterprise Strategy, Organizational Management, and Innovation Methods

Integrating the above ideas, Professor Zeng Ming has constructed a strategic management system for the intelligent business era, systematically summarizing enterprise strategy formulation, organizational management, and innovation methods, and making forward-looking prospects for future development.

1. New Paradigm of Strategy Formulation: Traditional strategy seeks to reduce uncertainty, formulate long-term plans, and execute efficiently. But Zeng Ming has redefined strategy: strategy is no longer a static plan, but a dynamic process of repeated iteration between Vision and Action. He proposed the "AV cycle" (vision-action rapid feedback loop) model. Specifically, enterprise leaders must first have a long-term industrial endgame judgment (Vision), but under rapidly changing environments, any prediction may deviate, so what's more important is the continuous process of "prediction-experimentation-correction". Action itself becomes an exploration tool: rapid execution, small-step trial-and-error, validating or correcting the initial vision from market feedback. This cycle repeats itself, allowing strategy to self-adjust and develop. Zeng Ming emphasizes: "What's important is not whether the prediction is right or wrong, but whether you are constantly making predictions." Through high-frequency iteration, enterprises can find certainty in uncertainty. He also points out that wasting some resources is worthwhile to quickly test and find direction; internet companies dare to progress on multiple lines and conduct redundant experiments for this reason. This shift in strategic thinking has enlightened many traditional enterprise managers: rather than trying to formulate perfect plans, it's better to learn while doing, seeking the optimal path in dynamics.

2. New Principles of Organizational Management: Zeng Ming's summary is that future organizations must transition from "management-oriented" to "empowerment-oriented". Management-oriented organizations rely on hierarchical commands and KPI assessments, suitable for stable environments; while empowerment-oriented organizations emphasize network collaboration and creativity, adapting to the rapidly changing intelligent era. Specific new principles include: vision-driven replacing instruction-driven—letting all employees understand the company's long-term mission, uniting through shared vision rather than constraining through regulations; culture and mechanisms replacing hierarchical control—guiding behavior through values, equity incentives, shared results, rather than through administrative orders; empowerment replacing management—leaders' roles changing from commanders to coaches and servers, providing resource platforms for the frontline to create greater value; co-creation replacing top-level decision-making—encouraging employees to participate in strategic discussions and innovation projects, forming bottom-up decision emergence mechanisms. Additionally, organizational structures will become more flattened and elastic. Zeng Ming deduces that the best form for creating new businesses in the future may be "special forces"-style small teams: a dozen people working closely together can support an entrepreneurial project. These small teams, supported by the company's internal loosely coupled platforms, plus externally open network collaboration, form a three-layer organizational structure of "tightly coupled small teams + loosely coupled platforms + open networks". In this form, efficient execution will increasingly be undertaken by AI, and human energy will focus on creating unique value. In a nutshell, future organizations are a kind of human-machine collaborative, network-evolving organism: AI handles tedious affairs, humans exert creativity, and the two collaborate in operations. This series of new organizational principles by Zeng Ming provides operational guidelines for enterprises transitioning from industrial paradigms to digital paradigms.

3. New Approaches to Innovation Methods: In the field of innovation, Zeng Ming particularly emphasizes embracing uncertainty and cross-border integration. He points out that uncertainty means opportunity, and true strategy should grasp potential demands that have not yet manifested. Therefore, enterprises should encourage exploratory innovation, preferring to experiment in multiple directions rather than adhering to a single direction. Alibaba's internal "horse-racing" mechanism is precisely to maintain diversity in response to an uncertain future. Zeng Ming also mentions the "point-line-plane-body" strategic thinking to guide different innovation paths: point breakthrough (single-point innovation like Uber focusing on ride-hailing), line integration (building an industry chain), plane orientation (creating multi-sided market platforms), and finally body as an ecosystem. Different enterprises should choose suitable innovation paths based on their own situations. Additionally, he is very concerned about technology-driven innovation. In recent speeches, he has discussed how AI technology is triggering business paradigm changes: "AI essentially solves the problem of decision efficiency and costs, with its core value lying in creating new supply." As artificial intelligence develops, machines will liberate people from repetitive, boring mental labor, giving people more time to engage in creative matters. This will give rise to many previously unimaginable new products and services. Zeng Ming predicts, "In principle, there will be no 'product companies' in the future, only 'service companies,' with products merely being carriers of services." In other words, enterprises need to transform into user-centered, scenario-based service providers. To meet this trend, he suggests that enterprises accelerate digital and intelligent transformation, using AI, big data, and other technologies to upgrade business models. In terms of organizational and intelligent entity co-creation, he depicts a future picture: AI becomes employees' "colleagues," organizational structures are redefined, and human-machine integration produces new work paradigms. Facing such a future, he encourages enterprises to maintain a spirit of lifelong learning and self-revolution, proactively embracing technological changes, even if it means overthrowing their old models. This self-iteration is the embodiment of the "self-evolution" spirit advocated by Zeng Ming at the innovation level.

4. Future Prospects: Zeng Ming is full of confidence about business transformation in the next 10 years and beyond. In his view, human business society has experienced agricultural economy and industrial economy, and is now entering a new era based on intelligent technology. This is a civilization-level leap. In his second "Looking Ten Years Ahead" public lecture, he pointed out that the AI era has arrived, like welcoming a new "iPhone moment." He predicts that three major technological mainlines—General Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Driving, and Scientific Intelligence (AI for Science)—will reshape various industries. The underlying logic of enterprise value creation will also change—in the past, information asymmetry was a business opportunity, now AI makes information matching tend toward perfection; in the past, insufficient production capacity was the norm, now production overcapacity requires mining potential demands. Therefore, he believes that "uncertainty is the opportunity for creation". The essence of strategy will become more synonymous with innovation, with every executive and even every employee needing to possess strategic thinking, closely integrated with product technology. Zeng Ming also has prospects for talent: the future most needs creative talent with multi-dimensional perspectives and unique specialties, because AI will lower the threshold of professional knowledge, and composite creative talent will stand out. He encourages the younger generation to engage in learning cutting-edge technologies such as AI while cultivating humanistic insights, in order to lead innovation in the era of human-machine collaboration.

In summary, Professor Zeng Ming's strategic thinking system has painted for us a new blueprint for the intelligent business era: enterprise strategy must have the foresight to follow trends, as well as the agility for rapid trial and error; organizational management must be people-oriented and network-collaborative, allowing organizations to self-evolve like living organisms; innovation methods must dare to break boundaries, make good use of new technologies, and transform uncertainty into growth momentum. Looking toward the future, this system of thinking will continue to guide enterprises in finding the right direction amid turbulent technological changes and achieving sustained prosperity. As Zeng Ming says: "It takes ten years to achieve greatness," only by seeing the major trends, adhering to the mission, and continuously innovating can one stand invincible in the wave of new business civilization.

Four Steps to Rational Decision-Making

· 3 min read

Ordinary people have few opportunities to make decisions in life and work, and it is also difficult to practice and improve their decision-making skills. Most people's decisions rely on intuition, while rational decisions depend on processes. The book "Decisive" proposes a four-step process for rational decision-making — to increase the probability of making the best decision, we need to 1. broaden options, 2. test assumptions with facts, 3. step outside ourselves to see ourselves, and 4. prepare for wrong decisions.

1. Broaden Options

People mistakenly think that making a choice is as simple as answering multiple-choice questions on an exam, selecting one from three or five options. However, the world is vast, and options are not limited to just a few. For example, an advertising design company may develop multiple design proposals simultaneously and combine useful elements into the final design outcome after each round of feedback. This not only increases work efficiency but also saves time costs in decision-making. Additionally, one can refer to the base rates of others' choices in similar situations. Sam Walton, the founder of Walmart, closely monitored competitors throughout his career to adjust decisions in a timely manner. As decision-makers, we should find the best solutions by creating more options and referencing others' choices.

2. Test Assumptions with Facts

If practice is the only criterion for testing truth, then conducting experiments before making final decisions can relatively accurately estimate whether an idea will work. Many companies have evolved from hiring employees solely through interviews to requiring them to go through short trial periods, precisely to avoid the limitations of interviews and increase decision accuracy. A friend of mine tried staying overnight in a house before buying it and discovered that he could hear the train's horn, thus avoiding a significant mistake at a low cost.

3. Step Outside Ourselves to See Ourselves

When decision-makers become too immersed in their own viewpoints, they often overlook external perspectives. Therefore, to assess the potential outcomes of a decision, one should investigate the objective circumstances underlying the decision. Consider evaluating options from a broader temporal and spatial perspective, such as Andy Grove pretending to be the new CEO entering through the front door and cutting the memory chip business; Kai-Fu Lee hypothesizing that tomorrow's headlines will report on his two choices — one being emotional but unjust, the other just but unfeeling, and then choosing to be just as a leader; Jeff Bezos imagining himself at 80 looking back, using the "regret minimization framework."

4. Prepare for Wrong Decisions

When considering the outcomes of decisions, you should contemplate both the best and worst-case scenarios to understand your position. If the situation approaches the worst outcome, you can respond in a timely manner. Additionally, you can establish signals that make you aware of your actions, thereby weakening the inertia of behavior and correcting decisions promptly. Notably, to increase the speed of decision-making, Bezos believes that decisions are inherently unequal and should never be treated equally — reversible decisions should use lightweight decision-making processes.

Charles Handy: The Second Curve

· 2 min read

When you know where you should go, it is too late to go there; if you always keep your original path, you will miss the road to the future.

Charles Handy makes an analogy as his road to Davy's Bar. Turn right and go up the hill when there is half a mile to the Davy's Bar. However, when he realized he was on the wrong way, he arrived at Davy's Bar already.

The growth curve is usually in an "S" shape, and we call it S-curve or sigmoid curve. To keep the overall growth rate high, you have to develop your second S-curve before it is too late to invest your time and resources.

Intel's CPU, Netflix's video streaming, Nintendo's gaming, Microsoft's cloud are all excellent examples of the second-curve-driving businesses.

How to find and catch the second curve takes vision and execution. You have to input more information and continuously sort them to identify the best opportunities. And then, once a chance identified, you need a reliable team to fight the battle and figure out whether it really works.

What makes you succeed may not make you succeed again. There is always a limit to growth. The second curve theory helps us reflect on why and how to embrace the change and live a more thriving life.

Charles Handy: The Second Curve

· 2 min read

When you know where to go, it is often too late; if you always stick to the original path, you will miss the road to the future.

Charles Handy illustrates this with the analogy of "David's Bar": on the way to "David's Bar," you should turn right up the hill when you are half a mile away. However, by the time he realized he was going the wrong way, he had already arrived at "David's Bar."

Growth curves are typically S-shaped, which we refer to as the S curve. To keep the growth rate consistently high, you must invest time and resources to develop a second S curve while there is still time.

Intel's CPUs, Netflix's video streaming, Nintendo's games, and Microsoft's cloud services are all excellent examples of businesses driven by this second curve.

How can you discover and seize the second curve? You need to input more information, discern good from bad, and identify opportunities. Then, once the opportunity arises, having a strong team to tackle the hard work is essential to determine whether you have truly found the second curve.

The reasons that made you successful in the past may not lead to future success; growth always has its limits. The second curve theory helps us reflect on why and how to embrace change for a better life.

The Company's Technology and Market Quadrant Diagram and Gravitational Directions

· 4 min read

Technology

Technology

Market

Market

Leaders

Leaders

The Innovator's Dilemma

The Innovator's Dilemma

Challengers

Challengers

Dragonslayers

Dragonslayers

  • The gravitational direction of technology is towards mediocrity: as technology inflates, excellent technologies tend to become mediocre, and mediocre companies adopt excellent technologies.
  • The gravitational direction of the market is the Matthew effect: markets with a presence will grow larger, while those without will shrink.

Stratechery: Why Did Amazon Acquire Whole Foods?

· 4 min read

The answer is: Amazon wanted to buy customers for its grocery service.

Background

  • Amazon's acquisition of Whole Foods = Apple's iPhone defeating Palm

    • Do not confuse goals, strategies, and tactics — Apple's strategy:
      • It was not about making phones but about producing personal computers
      • It was not about adding features to phones but about compressing traditional phone functions into one app
      • It was not about replicating the work of carriers but about leveraging its connection with customers
    • The iPhone is the most successful product in history = Amazon is the most dominant company in history
  • Amazon's Goals

    1. Initially, Amazon.com aimed to become a leading retailer based on information products and services, starting with selling books.
    2. Then, Amazon declared, "Our vision is to be Earth's most customer-centric company, where customers can find anything they want to buy online."
    3. ==Amazon's goal is to gain a share of all economic activities==.
  • Amazon's Strategy

    • For businesses: AWS. Assume that all commercial transactions will soon be completed online.
    • For customers: Prime. Assume that high costs and diverse choices are unsustainable. With Prime, customers will not consider other alternatives.
      • However
        • The grocery industry is the largest retail category
        • The grocery industry can continuously remind consumers that there are alternatives to Amazon
  • Amazon's Tactics: Develop grocery services

Why Did Amazon Not Arrive at the Right Tactics?

BooksGroceries
High inventory units = wide selectionLow inventory units (30k - 50k)
StandardizedVaried
Non-perishablePerishable

Amazon's cost disadvantages in fresh produce

  1. Once scale is insufficient, product spoilage will incur high costs.
  2. Scale depends on the specific circumstances of each city.

Why does acquiring Whole Foods (rather than others) solve the business scale issue?

==Business fundamental component model + two basic points 1) High fixed costs 2) High returns==

  • Deconstruct the infrastructure into Minimum Sellable Units (MSUs)
  • These businesses themselves are the first and best customers of these minimum sellable units
  • Resell the minimum sellable units

AWS's three-tier architecture

ServiceFundamental ComponentS3, EC2, RDS, SNS, ...
PlatformAWSHigh fixed costs + scale returns
InfrastructureModular ComponentsData centers, servers, storage, switches, bandwidth
  • MSUs belong to S3, EC2, RDS, SNS, etc.
  • The first and best customer is amazon.com
  • Resell MSUs to non-Amazon developers

Amazon.com's three-tier architecture

ServicePackageFDA, Amazon Pay, ...
PlatformLogistics CenterHigh fixed costs + scale returns
InfrastructureModular SuppliersManufacturers, third-party suppliers, etc.
  • MSUs belong to FDA, Amazon Pay, etc.
  • The first and best customer is Amazon's first-party e-commerce
  • Resell MSUs to third-party suppliers

The insight here is that Amazon's existing grocery does not have a first and best supplier.

The Perfect Customer

Placing Whole Foods into this framework, we can see that ==what Amazon did was not just buy a retailer, but also acquire a customer for its existing business==.

Amazon.com's three-tier architecture + Customers

CustomerAll categories of food, delivery, restaurants
ServiceGroceriesMeat, fruits, vegetables, dry goods, etc.
PlatformLogistics CenterHigh fixed costs + scale returns
InfrastructureModular SuppliersStore brands, name brands, local suppliers, regional suppliers, etc.

Now, Amazon groceries can serve both Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods, and in the future, this foundational platform can also provide services to restaurants and other food-related entities.

Stratechery: Why amazon acquired whole foods?

· 3 min read

Answer: Amazon wanted to buy a customer for its grocery services.

Background

  • Amazon acquiring Whole Foods = Apple’s iPhone beating Palm

    • Don’t misunderstand goals vs strategies vs tactics - Apple’s strategy
      • is not to build a phone but to build personal computer
      • is not to add functionalities to a phone but to reduce the phone to an app
      • is not to duplicate the carriers but to leverage their customer connections
    • iPhone is the most successful product of all time = Amazon is the most dominant company of all time
  • Amazon's Goal

    1. Initially, Amazon.com’s objective is to be the leading online retailer of information-based products and services, with an initial focus on books.
    2. Then, it says "our vision is to be earth’s most customer centric company; to build a place where people can come to find and discover anything they might want to buy online."
    3. ==Amazon’s goal is to take a cut of all economic activity.==
  • Amazon's Strategy

    • to enterprise: AWS. Assuming that all businesses will soon be Internet-enabled businesses.
    • to customer: Prime. Assuming that superior cost/and/superior selection are not sustainable. With prime, alternatives won’t be even considered by customers.
      • However
        • grocery is the largest retail category.
        • grocery is the most persistent opportunity for reminding users there are other alternatives.
  • Tactics: develop grocery services

Why hadn’t Amazon figured out the right tactics?

BookGrocery
high SKUs = large selectionless SKUs(30k - 50k)
standardizedvary in quality
imperishableperishable

AmazonFresh’s cost disadvantage

  1. High costs of perishable items if not scaled
  2. Scale needs to be based on cities

Why can acquiring Whole Food (not doing other things) solve the scale problem?

==Primitives model for business with 1) hight fixed costs 2) high returns to scale==

  • decouple infrastructure into Minimal Sellable Units (MSUs)
  • business itself is ==The First-And-Best Customer== of those MSUs
  • resell MSUs to the outside

AWS Three Layers

ServicesPrimitivesS3, EC2, RDS, SNS, ...
PlatformAWSHigh Fixed Costs + Returns to Scale
InfrastructureModularized ComponentsData center, Servers, Storage, Switches, Bandwidth
  • MSUs are S3, EC2, RDS, SNS, etc
  • The First-And-Best Customer is amazon.com
  • resell MSUs to non-Amazon developers

Amazon.com Three Layers

ServicesPackagesFDA, Amazon Pay, ...
PlatformFulfillment CentersHigh Fixed Costs + Returns to Scale
InfrastructureModularized SuppliersManufacturers, 3rd Party Merchants, ...
  • MSUs are FDA, Amazon Pay, etc.
  • The First-And-Best Customer is Amazon first-party e-commerse
  • resell MSUs to 3rd party merchants

The insight here is that grocery business has no first-and-best customer.

Perfect Customer

After fitting in Whole Foods to the big picture, we can see that ==Amazon is buying more than a retailer - it’s buying a customer==.

Amazon.com Three Layers + Customers

CustomersWhole Foods, Delivery, Restaurants
ServicesGroceriesMeat, Fruit, Vegetables, Non-perishables, ...
PlatformFulfillment CentersHigh Fixed Costs + Returns to Scale
InfrastructureModularized SuppliersStore Brand, Name Brand, Local Suppliers, Regional Suppliers, ...

Now Amazon Grocery Services can serve AmazonFresh and WholeFoods, and then in the future restaurants or whatever can consume it.

Good Strategy and Bad Strategy (Part 2)

· 4 min read

4 WHY SO MUCH BAD STRATEGY?

There are three reasons-

  1. It is painful to make a choice
    • A democratic voting may result in the paradox of voting (reaching an unlogical result like A > B > C > A). For example, the DEC company had three options when making strategic choices - producing server "boxes", "chips", or "solutions". CEO Ken Olsen let people reach a consensus. However, you cannot make sub-organizations give up their passions by themselves. Finally, they failed to choose any one of them, and the answer was "DEC is committed to providing high-quality products and services and being a leader in the data processing."
    • Eisenhower in 1952 won the presidential election and promised to urge the Soviet Union to retreat from Eastern Europe. However, after researching, he cannot do so and had to confront reality.
    • Intel CEO Andy Grove moves the company from producing dynamic random access memory (DRAM) to the one focused on microprocessors. In retrospective, that was a great move but back at his time, he did this under enormous pressure.
  2. People like to follow templates without thinking
    • Mistaking leadership for strategy. Leadership and strategy have something similar but are substantially different.
      • Leadership makes people feel better when they are sacrificing for changing.
      • Strategy decides which kind of change worth pursuing.
    • misbelieving that having a strategy equals to having a GOOD strategy. There are numerous templates for strategies and people just take them without thinking, which leads to countless bad strategies.
  3. New Thought Movement: people misbelieve that a positive attitude and a strong desire can earn them everything they want.
    • This kind of "positive energy" is the opium of the people, which makes them too lazy to focus on the execution that is truly helpful to the result.

5 THE KERNEL OF GOOD STRATEGY

The kernel of the good strategy

  1. diagnosis: simplifying the problems and identify the challenges and obstacles.
  2. guiding policies: specifically dealing with those problems and challenges.
  3. coherent actions: under the guiding policies, taking actions with alignments.

Three examples:

In business, the challenge is usually dealing with change and competition.

  1. diagnosing the specific structure of the obstacle rather than simply naming performance goals.
  2. choosing an overall guiding policy for tackling the obstacle that enables some type of leverage or advantage.
  3. design of a configuration of actions and resource allocations that implement the chosen guiding policy.

In many large organizations, the challenge is often diagnosed as internal.

  1. organization's competitive problems may be much lighter than the obstacles imposed by its own outdated routines, bureaucracy, pools of entrenched interests, lack of cooperation across units, and plain-old bad management.
  2. reorganization and renewal.
  3. changes in people, power, and procedures.

Amazon's Flying Wheel

  1. Diagnosing that e-commerce and cloud computing are high-costs with high-returns. Thus the company should keep or increase the high return while cutting the costs.
  2. Designing the policies of the flywheel. See the picture below.
  3. Building infrastructures and services around the flywheel.

The Amazon business model as drawn by Jeff Bezos on a napkin

I think the "coherent actions" are very interesting.

  • Coherent actions means that those actions should align in the same direction, instead of conflicting with each other. For example, as a manager, when I introduce any process to anyone, my principle is that "I would never do things that are not helpful to your work."
  • Strategic alignment can hardly be arranged in real-time. It is designed by the leader and enforced on the system.
  • Centrally-controlled system sounds bad but each component of the system cannot just operate in absolute autonomy. For example, in the manufacturing industry, the salespeople love to please customers with rush orders, but the manufacturing people prefer long steady production runs. Rush orders and steady production runs cannot happen at the same time. The management has to make a tradeoff.

Good Strategy, Bad Strategy

· 17 min read

Introduction: Targeted Approach

Strategy is about designing and executing a combination of punches: Where is the enemy? Where should we strike, and where should we not? How do we throw our punches? How can the first punch help the second and third?

The core of strategy = Analyzing the current situation + Guiding principles + Coherent actions

Part One: Good Strategy, Bad Strategy

1 Good Strategy is Unexpected

Good strategy is unexpected yet reasonable. For example, in 1997, when Steve Jobs returned to Apple, he drastically reduced the product line and focused on a few profitable products. When asked how to deal with the dominant Wintel alliance, he did not give an elaborate strategic speech or set grand growth targets; he simply smiled and said he would wait for the next wave.

Another example is the Gulf War's Operation Desert Storm, where the main forces were reported to be advancing slowly in the media, while another wave of troops stealthily penetrated the enemy from another direction.

Doing everything and believing everything is important is equivalent to believing nothing is important. Good leaders need to know not only what to do but also what not to do.

2 Viewing Strengths with a Discoverer's Eye

The most fundamental strategy is the SO strategy—Strengths (S) plus Opportunities (O). So where do these strengths come from?

Shakespeare said well in Hamlet: "There is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so." Viewing the world dynamically, strengths and weaknesses are relative. A classic example is the story of David and Goliath. From a secular perspective, David is weak and Goliath is strong; David is a newcomer, while Goliath is an experienced giant warrior. Yet David defeated Goliath with a sling.

The story of Walmart defeating Kmart illustrates discovering advantages from unexpected places. Traditional wisdom in American retail is that a diverse supermarket needs to be located in an area with at least 100,000 people. However, Walmart was able to open in less populated areas. Why? Because Walmart has more efficient supply chain management, creating an organic network between stores, while Kmart's stores were less interconnected, leading to higher inventory management costs and less bargaining power in procurement.

During the Cold War arms race, Andy Marshall's strategy against the Soviet Union was to develop comparative advantages by leveraging America's economic and technological strengths to develop technologies that would be costly for the opponent to counter but would not pose a threat to the U.S., such as improving missile accuracy and developing silent submarines. Ultimately, this strategy led to the downfall of the Soviet Union.

3 Bad Strategy

Bad strategy is formalism and has four basic characteristics:

  1. Empty rhetoric == Fluff ==: Strategy should not be a pile of grandiose terms.

    • For example, a bank might say, "Our core strategy is to be a customer-centric intermediary," but essentially, it means "Our bank's core strategy is to be a bank."
  2. Inability to confront challenges

    • If you cannot face resistance, there will be no strategy. Instead, you will only have an unattainable goal.
    • This reminds me that choosing root-level metrics must be done very carefully; == if it cannot be quantified, it cannot be improved. ==
    • A positive example is DARPA.
  3. Mistaking goals for strategy

    • For instance, a company claims a 20/20 strategy—20% revenue growth this year and a profit margin of at least 20%. This is not strategy; it is merely a goal.
    • Metrics are not strategy.
  4. Sub-goals that are irrelevant or unrealistic

    • Goals are the overall objectives; objectives are sub-goals.
    • Good strategy focuses limited energy and resources on a single or few sub-goals, achieving which can generate new advantages.
    • What constitutes a bad sub-goal?
      1. Putting everything together without prioritization.
      2. Setting unrealistic expectations.

4 Why Are There So Many Bad Strategies?

There are three main reasons:

  1. Making choices is painful.

    • Voting leads to the voting paradox: democratic voting can yield irrational results like A > B > C > A. For example, when DEC was making strategic choices, there were three factions: focus on "servers"? Or "chips"? Or "solutions"? CEO Ken Olsen sought consensus, but essentially, you cannot make a sub-organization automatically give up its own enthusiasm. So in the end, everyone chose a compromise: "DEC is committed to being a leader in providing high-quality data products and services." This is just empty rhetoric.
    • Eisenhower promised to withdraw Soviet troops from Eastern Europe during his 1952 presidential campaign, but after winning the election and conducting extensive research, he made the difficult decision to abandon that promise.
    • Intel CEO Andy Grove faced a tough decision to shift from DRAM to microprocessor strategy.
  2. People prefer to use templates without thinking.

    • For example, mistaking leadership for strategy. Leadership and strategy have similarities but should never be confused.
      • Leadership encourages self-sacrifice and transformation, making people feel good.
      • Strategy is about articulating what transformations are worth pursuing.
    • A similar confusion arises when having a strategy leads one to believe it is a good strategy. Countless books and tutorials provide templates for people to fill in mindlessly, resulting in numerous bad strategies.
  3. People often believe in human dominance over fate, thinking attitude determines everything.

    • Zhang Defen's "Law of Attraction" creates a fantasy of "positive energy" regarding outcomes, leading people to neglect the real efforts that contribute to results, which is a form of mental opium. We should focus more on imagining the process of doing things, akin to simulation training.

5 The Core of Good Strategy

The core of good strategy consists of three basic elements:

  1. Diagnosis: Simplifying problems, identifying challenges and obstacles.
  2. Guiding principles: How to respond to challenges?
  3. Coherent actions: A series of actions guided by principles that mutually reinforce each other.

Here are three examples:

In business, many challenges arise from external changes and competition.

  1. Analyze the structure of specific competition rather than merely listing performance goals.
  2. Choose guiding principles that can broadly address these situations and create advantages for the future.
  3. Set up a series of actions and resource allocations that effectively realize the guiding principles.

In large organizations, challenges often come from within, which is why large organizations frequently undergo restructuring.

  1. External competition is not as important as internal obstacles—outdated processes, bureaucracy, conflicts of interest, lack of cooperation, and outdated management styles.
  2. Choose restructuring strategies that can innovate the organization.
  3. Change the distribution of people and power through restructuring to improve processes.

The flywheel effect of Amazon.

  1. Analyze that e-commerce and cloud services are high-cost and high-return, so reduce costs while ensuring returns.
  2. Design the flywheel effect.
  3. Build AWS's data centers and various cloud services around the flywheel effect, creating the infrastructure and e-commerce services for Amazon.com.

This point about "coherent actions" is particularly interesting.

  • "Coherent complementary actions" means these actions directly help each other to create synergy. For example, as a manager, I introduce the principle that == "I will never make you do anything that does not help your core work." ==

  • Strategic collaboration is not something arranged on the fly; it is deliberately designed and centrally imposed on the system.

  • Centralization can be a bad thing, but a disorganized approach is also ineffective because different sub-organizations have different interests. For instance, in manufacturing, sales may prefer to please customers with urgent large orders, while production departments prefer stable, uninterrupted output over the long term. It is impossible to manage both urgent large orders and stable production simultaneously.

  • Organizational collaboration is time-consuming and labor-intensive; do not pursue it without sufficient benefits. Smart organizations do not aim for 100% communication among everyone but rather achieve just the right amount of coordination.

Part Two: Sources of Strength

The effectiveness of good strategy lies in focusing limited energy on the points that yield the most results. Good steel is used at the cutting edge.

So we must ask, where does this energy come from? Here are some common sources:

  • Leverage: We cannot have infinite power to do anything, but there is always a certain amount of power to do some things. If this power is leveraged, we can achieve more with less effort. Leverage can come from several places:

    1. Forecasting. In competitive strategy, key forecasts often involve buyer demand and competitor responses.
    2. Pivot points. Pivot points can amplify capabilities and resources. For example, when 7-11 was in Japan, it discovered that "customers in different regions of Japan have their unique local tastes" and accordingly adjusted its supply based on feedback from staff and store managers.
    3. Concentration. Many things have a == threshold effect ==; if your continuous investment does not reach a certain threshold, the final effect will be no different from doing nothing. For example, in the advertising industry, continuous small-scale advertising is less effective than concentrated promotion in specific regions. Mao Zedong concentrated superior forces to eliminate the enemy's living strength.
  • Grasp: Kennedy broke down the Apollo moon landing program into several clear, achievable sub-goals or milestones: unmanned exploration, larger propulsion rockets, parallel development of liquid and solid fuel rockets, and building landing vehicles.

  • Chain systems. A system like a chain, where the weakest link determines the maximum pull the entire chain can withstand. To strengthen the entire system, each link must be reinforced. Such systems are extremely difficult to replicate, like IKEA. This investment requires leaders to withstand pressure to advance because the strengthening of the system is nonlinear; only when the last link is reinforced can the effects be seen.

  • Design.

    • Hannibal's Battle of Cannae resulted in one of the most painful defeats in ancient Roman history and is also one of the deadliest battles in global history in a single day.
    • Analysis and design of complex systems: What elements does the system have? How do these elements interact? What trade-offs will there be for optimizing towards what goals?
    • For example, in the U.S. heavy truck market, a thorough analysis of how this system operates identified key persons who could decide purchasing choices, then optimized specifically for the needs of these key persons.
  • Focus strategy, providing specific services for specific groups.

    • For example, Crown Cork & Seal Company survived in this competitive field by focusing on small urgent orders for small manufacturers.
  • Growth. The growth of team size should not be deliberate but rather a natural result of the company's product growth.

    • Again, the aforementioned Crown company made acquisitions, which led to a stock price crash from 55to55 to 5. Similar cases include LeEco and Yahoo.
  • Utilizing advantages. Comparative advantages are domain-specific; a champion runner may not excel in high jumping.

    • For instance, a startup that the author collaborated with wanted to transition from making fabrics to making clothes, mistakenly not realizing that the fabric for clothing and making clothes are entirely different fields.
  • Dynamics: exploit a wave of exogenous change.

  • Inertia, momentum, and entropy. Inertia can be utilized; for example, Microsoft transitioned from a B2B office suite to a B2B cloud. Closed systems decay due to entropy, which may explain why American companies are keen to bring in external managers.

Among these, the point about external change is particularly interesting. Generally speaking, there are two ways to gain strategic high ground that is easy to defend and hard to attack:

  1. Independent innovation.
  2. Riding the wave of change.

It's easy to be an armchair strategist after the fact. To make predictions before taking action requires a deep understanding of the past and present, seeing through phenomena to the essence, and thus being able to deduce the second and third steps. Unfortunately, most people can only see the present.

For example, after television emerged in the 1950s, everyone realized that the film industry would struggle, but few could predict that the next step would be the rise of independent films. Independent filmmakers could break free from traditional studio ties and focus on making good films, as only good films could attract audiences to theaters.

Cisco has occupied three competitive high grounds:

  1. Software and microprocessors.
  2. Corporate networks.
  3. IP networks.

Signposts pointing to competitive high ground:

  1. Fixed costs soar. For example, capital-intensive big productions give rise to large film companies. The development costs of large software systems give rise to large software companies.

  2. Deregulation. For example, China's reform and opening up.

  3. Prediction bias.

    1. The illusion of growth. For example, few can predict when a business or economy reaches its peak and begins to decline. Growth always has an end; a person who has bought one television is unlikely to buy a second immediately. == The faster sales grow, the faster the market saturates. ==
    2. The illusion of winner-takes-all. Yes, it is winner-takes-all, but not necessarily; large companies can suffer from internal issues, and external changes can occur.
    3. The illusion of winners always winning. For example, Yahoo.
  4. The incumbent effect: unwilling to harm short-term interests for reform, similar to the Innovator’s Dilemma. B2B businesses cannot consider helping companies save money; they should help companies make money, or they will offend entrenched interests within those companies.

  5. == Attractor state == or "end-state thinking," the state the market should reach. ==

Attractor state is an interesting new concept. Here, we elaborate on it. It differs from a company's vision in that a vision is unique to the company, while an attractor is the equilibrium that the entire market should reach.

It has two related concepts: accelerants and impediments.

  • A typical accelerant is the "proof effect"; for example, Napster made everyone suddenly realize that 2.5MB of music could be downloaded, copied, and sent, while Bitcoin made everyone suddenly realize that investing in virtual currencies could lead to wealth.

    • Mao Zedong's idea that a spark can start a prairie fire: concentrating forces to eliminate larger enemies, occupying towns, can mobilize a broad base of support and establish a regime across several counties. This can amplify political influence and promote the actual effectiveness of revolutionary peaks.
  • A typical example of an impediment is the public's fear and resistance to nuclear power plants, even though people know that nuclear energy is the trend of the future.

Let's analyze the external changes facing the newspaper industry.

Taking The New York Times as an example, the cost of printing newspapers is about two to three times the subscription revenue, and printing costs are mainly covered by advertising. Since 2009, two problems have emerged:

One is the rise of other easily accessible new media, leading to a decline in newspaper readership, and the other is that advertising in newspapers has been taken over by Google.

Differentiation in news media has three dimensions: space, frequency, and depth. The author believes that the market's attractor leans towards specialization in these niches rather than broad coverage. In the era of "Internet + newspapers," from a cost-reduction perspective, The New York Times should leverage its brand and collaborate broadly with various information sources rather than relying on a small number of professional journalists.

The more precise the reader base, the more advertising revenue can be generated.

Part Three: Thinking Like a Strategist

How to think like a strategist? The answer is "external perspective," thinking about why you think the way you do.

16 What Kind of Discipline is Strategy?

  • Deductive vs. Inductive reasoning

    • The author meets with engineers from Hughes to formulate strategy.
      • Engineers dislike formulating strategy because their thinking is == deductive ==. They plan with certainty; they do not design a bridge that might hold a certain weight.
    • Deductive reasoning only works when one is omniscient; when faced with the unknown, it becomes ineffective.
    • == Deductive reasoning can stifle innovation. == Galileo's trial inspired the Enlightenment, which addressed how to deal with this issue through scientific empiricism.
    • Good strategy is based on hypotheses about what will work.
  • Formulating and implementing strategy is a scientific inductive process: observing and learning, forming hypotheses, collecting data, validating hypotheses, proposing hypotheses, and repeating the cycle. When Howard Schultz founded Starbucks, he had a hypothesis that an Italian café could succeed in the U.S., where cheap coffee was prevalent. He started by investing hundreds of thousands of dollars in a small café to validate the hypothesis, continuously optimizing until achieving vertical integration.

17 Focus on the Process of Thinking

  • Back to basics—list priorities.

    • Steel magnate Andrew Carnegie asked the father of scientific management, Taylor, "Young man, since you are my advisor, if you can tell me what management methods I should know, I will give you 10,000."10,000." 10,000 was a fortune in 1890. Taylor replied, "I would suggest you list the ten most important things and then focus on the first one." A week later, Taylor received a $10,000 check.
    • The author, when young, interviewed an executive and felt that there was nothing significant, just templates, and asked many template questions. However, the executive later felt that this conversation was the most valuable one he had had in the past year.
    • We cannot control thoughts, but we can control the process by which thoughts arise. The list itself may not be important; what matters is the process of generating the list.
  • Where do strategic thoughts come from? Typically, ideas emerge directly from the mind, and people find it hard to realize how these ideas come about; strategic thinking often means stepping outside this shortsightedness.

    • The core solution: == Think about your thinking. ==
  • There are tools that can help you think about your thinking.

    • Develop good habits.
      1. Use tools and processes to combat shortsightedness.
      2. Question your judgments, especially before genuinely engaging in competition.
      3. Record your judgments for future validation and review.
    • Tools and processes.
      • Strategic core: Diagnosis, guiding principles, coherent actions.
      • Q&A: Ask questions, analyze problems, provide answers. First ask why, then ask what.
      • Break and establish.
        • Do not list other options that a straw man might consider; set up a == virtual expert committee. ==
        • == Good strategies are often corner solutions. == This means emphasizing focus rather than compromise, concentrating on helping a subset of people solve specific problems without trying to solve every problem for everyone.
      • Contact review.
        • Three levels of review:
          • Recognizing one's own abilities and biases.
          • Recognizing others and how they will react to information and challenges.
          • Recognizing the market.
        • How to practice?
          • Rehearse.
            • Know as much as possible.
            • Identify important and unimportant factors.
            • Cultivate your viewpoint and be able to confidently disagree with others.
          • == Predict how people will behave before meetings. ==

18 Maintain Your Views

This chapter illustrates a problem through two examples: how to have opinions without being narrow-minded and stubborn. The answer is to introduce external perspectives.

  • One example is that when evaluating a company, one should not only look at the stock price but also consider the fundamentals. Global Crossing made decisions solely based on stock prices and subjective desires, creating a closed loop between stock prices and company decisions, leading to a disastrous outcome. == Gödel's incompleteness theorem tells us that in sufficiently complex logical systems, there are always things that cannot be self-verified within the system. To judge right from wrong, one must rely on external knowledge. ==

  • Another example is the 2008 financial crisis, a product of herd behavior combined with internal perspectives.

Good Strategy and Bad Strategy (Part 1)

· 4 min read

Intro: Focusing on Obstacles

A strategy is like designing and throwing a bunch of punching combos: where is the enemy? Where to punch? Where NOT to punch? How to punch? How does your first punch help the second and third ones?

Fighting Combos

The key idea of this book is the kernel of good strategy. Kernel of strategy = diagnosis + guiding policy + coherent actions.

PART I GOOD AND BAD STRATEGY

1 GOOD STRATEGY IS SURPRISING

A good strategy is surprising but reasonable. For example, when Steve Jobs returned to Apple, he cut the product lines to a few profitable ones. When asked how to compete against the Wintel standard, he just smiled and said, "I am going to wait for the next big thing."

Another example is Desert Storm. While the media exposure was focusing on the main troops moving slowly in the frontline, another group of military force was moving across the empty desert of southern Iraq as a "left hook."

Doing everything and thinking everything is important means everything is equally unimportant. Good leaders are supposed to know what to do and what NOT to do.

2 DISCOVERING POWER

When we ask what a strategy 101 is, a fundamental answer is SO strategy (Strength + Opportunity).

Shakespeare says in Helmet: there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so. From a dynamic perspective, strength and weakness are relative. The story of David and Goliath is a good example. People may think that David, the small and the inexperienced, can never fight against Goliath, the giant and the experienced. However, the truth is that David leverages the shepherd's sling to beat the slow and clumsy Goliath.

Walmart vs. Kmart is another example of finding strength out of where people hardly see. The traditional wisdom of retailing believes that a full-category grocery store has to be placed in an area with the population of at least 100K. However, Walmart can launch its store where there is less population than 100k. How could this happen? It is because that Walmart has a way more efficient supply management system, which makes those stores into an organic network; on the contrary, Kmart does not have close relationships between stores, and they cannot get united, cannot lower inventory costs, and cannot negotiate against suppliers as a whole.

In Cold War, Andrew Marshall designs the strategy to compete against the Soviet Union with comparative advantages - back by the economic and technological advantages of the US, developing things with huge costs but cannot establish actual offensive threats, like increasing the accuracy of missiles or quiet submarines.

3 BAD STRATEGY

Bad strategy is formalism. People mistakenly think the form of the strategy is the most important and cannot embrace the reality. There are four hallmarks to detect bad strategy.

  1. ==fluff==: strategy should not be just a collection of fancy buzzwords.
    • e.g. a major bank says, "Our fundamental strategy is one of customer-centric intermediation." = "Our bank's fundamental strategy is being a bank.".

  2. ==failure to face the challenge==:
    • If you fail to identify and analyze the obstacles, you don't have a strategy. Instead, you have either a stretch goal, a budget, or a list of things you wish would happen.

    • It takes caution to establish =root-level metrics. ==If you can't measure it; you can't improve it. However, are you improving the right thing?==

      • OKR-driven Google vs. KPI-driven Baidu
    • A successful example is DARPA.

  3. mistaking goals for strategy.
    • e.g., a 20/20 goal - We will grow revenue by at least 20% each year. We will maintain a profit margin of at least 20%.

    • metrics themselves are not a strategy.

  4. bad strategic objectives
    • Objectives are sub-goals of your goal.
    • A good strategy works by focusing energy and resources on one, or a very few, pivotal objectives whose accomplishment will lead to a cascade of favorable outcomes.
    • What are bad objectives?
      1. Dog's Dinner Objectives. Again, everything important equals to everything unimportant.
      2. Blue-Sky Objectives.