Agentic Task Complexity Estimation: Budget Tokens Before You Execute
Two agents receive the same user message. One finishes in 3 seconds and 400 tokens. The other enters a Reflexion loop, burns through 40,000 tokens, hits the context limit mid-task, and produces a half-finished answer. Neither the agent nor the calling system predicted which outcome was coming. This is not an edge case — it is the default behavior when agents start tasks without any model of how deep the work will go.
LLM-based agents have no native sense of task scope before execution. A request that reads as simple in natural language might require a dozen tool calls and multiple planning cycles; a complex-sounding request might resolve in a single lookup. Without pre-execution complexity estimation, agents commit resources blindly: the context window fills quadratically as turn history accumulates, planning overhead dominates execution time, and by the time the system detects a problem, the early decisions that caused it are irreversible.
