Hot-Path vs. Cold-Path AI: The Architectural Decision That Decides Your p99
Every AI feature you ship makes an architectural choice before it makes a product one: does this model call live inside the user's request, or does it run somewhere the user isn't waiting for it? The choice is usually made by whoever writes the first prototype, never revisited, and silently determines your p99 latency for the rest of the feature's life. When the post-mortem asks why a shipping dashboard became unusable at 10 a.m. every Monday, the answer is almost always that something which should have been cold-path got welded into the hot path — and a model that is fine at p50 becomes catastrophic at p99 when traffic fans out.
The hot-path / cold-path distinction is older than LLMs. CQRS, streaming architectures, lambda architectures — they all draw the same line between "must respond now" and "can arrive eventually." What's different about AI workloads is that the cost of crossing the line in the wrong direction is an order of magnitude higher than it used to be. A synchronous database query that takes 50 ms turning into 200 ms is a regression. A synchronous LLM call that takes 1.2 s at p50 turning into 11 s at p99 is a business decision you didn't know you made.
