The Vendor-Portability Tax: Why 'We Can Swap Models' Is a Quarterly Cost Line, Not a Checkbox
Every team I have audited in the last six months claims to be vendor-agnostic. None of them are. The system prompt that scored highest on the eval suite did so because it leaned into a single vendor's tokenizer behavior, JSON-mode contract, refusal cadence, and stop-sequence handling — and the team that wrote it could not name which of those biases were doing the work. When the CFO asks why the cheaper model on the procurement deck cannot just be dropped in, the honest answer is two engineer-quarters of prompt re-tuning and a complete re-baseline of every eval. That is not a checkbox. It is a quarterly cost line.
The mental model that keeps biting teams is treating vendor portability as a one-time architecture decision. You add an abstraction layer, you write a model: field in your config, you congratulate yourself, and you move on. Then a year later the vendor raises prices, ships a deprecation notice, or has a bad week of refusals on a category you care about, and you discover that the abstraction was a thin wrapper around a prompt that only works on one model. The portability you bought was syntactic. The portability you needed was behavioral, and behavioral portability decays the moment you stop paying for it.
