A/B Testing AI Features When the Treatment Is Non-Deterministic
Your team ships a new LLM-powered feature, runs a clean A/B test for two weeks, and sees a statistically significant improvement. You roll it out. Three weeks later, retention metrics are flat and support tickets are up. What went wrong? You ran a textbook experiment on a non-textbook treatment — and the textbook assumption that "the treatment is stable" broke silently.
Standard A/B testing was designed for deterministic or near-deterministic treatments: a button color change, a ranking algorithm with fixed parameters, a checkout flow. LLM features violate almost every assumption that makes classical frequentist experiments reliable. The treatment variance is high, the treatment itself mutates mid-experiment when providers push model updates, success is hard to operationalize, and novelty effects are strong enough to produce results that evaporate after users adapt.
This post is about the adjustments that make experimentation work anyway.
