Wardley-Map Your AI Stack Before You Build Another Layer of It
Most build-vs-buy arguments in AI engineering are fought one component at a time. Should we build our own model gateway or use OpenRouter? Write our own agent loop or adopt a framework? Fine-tune or prompt? Each debate gets its own meeting, its own spreadsheet, its own loudest voice. And each one quietly assumes the landscape will hold still long enough for the decision to pay off.
It won't. The ground under your AI stack is moving faster than any stack has moved before. Inference prices for a fixed capability level have been falling somewhere between 9x and 900x per year depending on the capability threshold you track — GPT-3-level output that cost $60 per million tokens in late 2021 now costs pennies. Agent frameworks have gone through multiple breaking rewrites in three years. The gateway layer went from "we should build one" to a crowded commodity market with managed and self-hosted options in about eighteen months. Deciding component-by-component in a landscape like this is navigating a river by staring at your feet.
There's a sixty-year-old tool built for exactly this problem: the Wardley map. It won't tell you what to build. It will tell you something more useful — which of your components are about to become someone else's cheap product, and which are moving the other way.
