The Agent Backfill Problem: Your Model Upgrade Is a Trial of the Last 90 Days
Here is a Tuesday-morning conversation that nobody on your AI team is prepared for. The new model lands in shadow mode. Within an hour the eval dashboard lights up: it categorizes 4% of refund requests differently than the model you have been running for the last quarter. Most of those flips look like the new model is right. Someone in the room — usually the one with the most lawyers in their reporting line — asks the question that ends the celebration: so what are we doing about the ninety days of decisions the old model already shipped?
That is the agent backfill problem. The moment a smarter model starts producing outputs that look more correct than your previous model's, every durable decision the previous model made becomes a contested record. You did not intend to indict the past. The new model did it for you, automatically, the first time you compared traces. And now you have an engineering question (can we replay history?), a legal question (do we have to disclose corrected outcomes?), and a product question (do users see retroactive changes?), and they collide.
