The Eval Migration Tax: Why a Prompt Schema Change Wrecks 800 Test Cases
Every AI team I've watched ship a "small" output schema change has lived through the same week. Someone renames a field in the system prompt — say, summary becomes tldr, or the tool catalog gains a required confidence parameter — and the next CI run lights up red across 800 eval cases that have nothing to do with the change. The prompt diff is fifteen lines. The eval diff is a four-day migration project nobody scoped, owned, or budgeted.
This is the eval migration tax. It is the maintenance cost no roadmap accounts for, paid in delayed releases that get blamed on "flaky tests" rather than the architectural choice that actually caused them. Most teams pay it for years before they recognize the pattern, because each individual incident looks like ordinary churn. The compounding only becomes visible when you tally the engineering hours spent migrating evals across a quarter and realize they exceed the hours spent improving the model behavior the evals were supposed to measure.
