Prompt Cache Thrashing: When Your Largest Tenant's Launch Triples Everyone's Bill
The bill arrives on the first of the month and it is three times what your spreadsheet said it would be. Nobody pushed a system prompt change. The dashboard says request volume is flat. p95 latency looks normal. The token-per-correct-task ratio is unchanged. And yet you owe the inference vendor an extra forty thousand dollars, and the only signal in the observability stack that even hints at why is a metric most teams never alarm on: cache hit rate, which dropped from 71% to 18% somewhere in the second week of the billing cycle, on a Tuesday, at 9:47 AM Pacific, which is when your largest tenant's customer-success team kicked off a coordinated onboarding push for two hundred new users.
Welcome to prompt cache thrashing — the multi-tenant failure mode that the SaaS playbook was supposed to have eliminated a decade ago, reintroduced through the back door by your inference provider's shared prefix cache. The provider's cache is shared across your organization's traffic. Your tenants share that cache with each other whether you want them to or not, and a single tenant whose prefix shape shifts overnight can evict the prefixes everyone else's unit economics depended on. The bill spikes for tenants who did nothing differently. Finance pages engineering. Engineering points at the dashboard, which shows nothing wrong, because the dashboard isn't measuring the thing that broke.
