The Reflection Placebo: Why Plan-Reflect-Replan Loops Return Version One
Open an agent's trace during a long-horizon planning task and count the number of times the model writes "let me reconsider," "on reflection," or "a better approach would be." Now compare the plan it finally commits to with the one it drafted first. In the majority of traces I've audited, the second plan is the first plan wearing a different hat — the same decomposition, the same tool calls, the same order of operations, with some renamed step labels and a reworded rationale. The reflection ran. The model emitted tokens that looked like reconsideration. The plan did not move.
This matters because "with reflection" has quietly become a quality tier. Teams ship planners with one, two, or three reflection rounds and bill themselves for the difference. The inference spend is real and measurable. Whether anything on the plan side actually changed is a question almost nobody instruments for, and the answer is frequently: no.
